Showing posts with label Data Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Data Analysis. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 5, 2021

Using Numbers to Redefine T20 Cricket

When it was launched in 2003, T20 cricket was considered no more than a more commercial format of the sport, which was a bit of fun, and provided a quick result for maximum entertainment.

It seemed like it was more entertainment, than sport. It was not cricket as we had known it to be.

The game's traditional format - Test Cricket - is far more meticulous with the better team almost always triumphing after five days of good competitive cricket. While, the middle format - ODIs - is somewhere in between.

The longer the format, the more exposed one's skill is and the likelihood of an upset is very low. Which is why T20 cricket provides for more intense and competitive games. It is the most random of the three formats of the game and in a shorter period of time any team can come out on top.

As the balance of power within cricket has swung towards T20, money and research has poured in to work out how to be successful in T20 cricket.

The T20 format has prompted a significant increase in the use of data analysis to improve recruitment, selection, and tactics, in a way that has never been used previously. Mumbai Indians, who are favorites to win the IPL as per the latest IPL betting, have used this to drive home huge success.

There is a weird paradoxthere,” says Tim Wigmore, journalist for The Independent and co-author of Cricket 2.0, a book about the T20 revolution.

“T20 is the most random format in that it takes the smallest number of deliveries to swing the course of a match, but it can also be planned. It gives you a far better opportunity to use data to plot your path to victory.”

The best managed T20 teams have learned how to use data to gain an edge in all departments of the game.

Teams are able to access averages, strike-rates, boundary percentages and much more in every phase of the innings at the click of a button.

If a team requires a batsman who hits at a strike-rate of 200 in the last five overs, for example, they can find out who has a track record of doing so.

Data is also used far more regularly to determine weaknesses in oppositions and to deploy tactics for specific matches.

Technological improvements have also coincided with the rise of T20 cricket, but that is not the only reason why this format has been most influenced by data analysis.

“There is so much more data to work with in T20 cricket,” says Wigmore. “The scenarios repeat themselves so much more often.

“You have so many variables in Test cricket. If you’re batting on a day-five pitch that is turning a certain amount, you might only have come across that scenario once or twice a year because of the number of things that need to take place in a Test match to get there.

“T20 scenarios do repeat themselves. You can plan for the 15th over when a certain batsman is well set because it happens so often.

“There are so many more top-level T20 matches. A top T20 player might play 50 matches per year, while a top Test player might play 12 or 13. It actually gives you a proper sample size to work with.”

The driving force behind the popularity of T20 cricket has been franchise leagues - the IPL, PSL, Big Bash, CPL - almost all nations have a league of their own. Salary caps and restrictions on number of overseas players allowed maintain the balance of the sides making the league more competitive.

Due to such restrictions, smart use of technology and data provide teams with a significant competitive edge.

The Mumbai Indians, who have won the IPL more times than any other team, have utilized data analysis the best among all T20 teams around the world.

“Mumbai Indians’ success has been rooted in out-thinking their opponents,” says Wigmore. “They are excellent at doing it before they even get to the auction able.

“They’ve got a very good idea of how to assemble a team because they’ve used data to establish the best strategy. Then they have a really strong scouting system that allows them to chase all of the most undervalued domestic talent.

“It’s a bit of a myth that you want to get the best overseas players – you actually want the players that add the most value to the team, which is dependent on which local players are available.

“For example, there is a relative shortage of power-hitters at the death in India, so they’ve used an overseas slot on Kieron Pollard, who’s a brilliant hitter.

“They’ve honed their strategy.”

Teams that have nailed their recruitment have placed themselves in the best position to master their tactical approach, too.

‘Match-ups’ has become an increasingly popular buzz term around T20 cricket over the last few years. Teams use data to identify the weaknesses of individual opponents and work out how players within their squad can exploit them.

Exposing a rival’s weakness is not new, but the use of numbers legitimizes the tactics.

“A lot of analysis for me is about knowing what the bowlers have in their armoury,” says South Africa and Rajasthan Royals batsman David Miller. “Their strengths and weaknesses.

“I want to know what they do when they are under pressure. Whether they go to the yorker or the slower ball, for example.

“Having that information definitely helps swing the odds in your favour.”

Wigmore explains that there are different ways that teams can use analysis of their opposition.

“You can plan it to a really deep degree,” says Wigmore. “You can plan when you want to bowl specific bowlers – I know Ricky Ponting says you can basically map out the entire bowling innings – but another way is to plan which bowlers you want to bowl to specific batsmen.

“For example, if your opening bowler has a really good match-up against their number three batsman, you might give them a third over with the new ball.

“A great example was the World T20 final in 2016 when Joe Root opened the bowling against Chris Gayle. England had worked out that Gayle against off-spin is not nearly as good as against other types of bowling, and Root got him out.

“We saw in the South Africa v England T20 series last year the England data analyst Nathan Leamon holding signs up with codes that reminded Eoin Morgan of the various match-ups that had been planned. That’s the degree to which players are working now.”

Morgan is a data enthusiast who believes in that way of working, but studying the numbers does not work for all players.

“I was never looking to take down certain bowlers that suited me – I didn’t look at things in that way,” says Kevin Pietersen, 2010 World T20 champion and one of the IPL’s greatest overseas players.

“If I decided during the match that a bowler had to go, then it didn’t matter who it was. It was game-based, so I didn’t plan it with analysis beforehand.

“I knew what my areas were, though. As my career went on I became more aware of which balls I could hit and begun to train my brain to recognise them early.”

Wigmore has spoken to players on both ends of the spectrum.

“There are players who have really embraced it,” he says.

“Look at Morgan and Pollard over the last few years – they have looked at their numbers, worked out how they can improve and have begun to start their innings much quicker.

“Quite a few of the West Indies team that won that final in 2016 look into numbers, too. Carlos Brathwaite second-guessed that Ben Stokes would bowl the yorker length in that last over because the long boundary was on the leg-side. That was a brilliant example.

“But most players don’t spend a long time looking at the numbers. They can talk to analysts about improvements they can make without even knowing the numbers behind it.”

An apparent divide between data sceptics, cast as stuffy and old-fashioned in their views, and data enthusiasts, forward-thinking and progressive, has emerged among cricket supporters over the last few years.

While there is no denying that teams using a data-driven approach enjoy lots of success, Wigmore argues that there is still a place for gut feel, instinct and an innate understanding of the game.

“Data can’t measure everything,” he says. “There will always be something that the model can’t account for on the day.

“It maybe can’t account for the wind or the dew or an injury, or whatever. I don’t think anybody is actually trying to say that gut feel is being replaced. I don’t think that’s how it’s being sold, and rightly so.

“But data can be used as a way of challenging and improving your decision-making. It is a really useful tool and increasingly important.”

While the analytics revolution gathers pace, you can be sure that those who are most open-minded to it will continue to flourish.


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Monday, April 8, 2019

A Data Analyst Looking to Change the Way Teams Analyze Cricketers

Dan Weston is a data analyst who is trying to break cricket's traditionalists and conformists with a numbers based approach. Here he talks about the mistakes that T20 teams make in ignoring key number based data.

Think about T20 cricket leagues around the world and what comes straight to your mind? Sixes, boundaries galore, fireworks, music, cheerleaders and dancers, cricketers mixing with celebrities, and so on. Cricket's T20 leagues around the world, and the IPL in particular, are big entertainment extravaganzas that mixes the glitz and the glamour with cricket!

Twenty years ago, it would not have even been considered cricket by the purists.

The same purists today believe that cricket should be played according to a certain tradition. And the same goes for analysis. Their ways of analyzing the game are also traditional.

Playing conditions and formats have changed over the years, and the way the game is played now is also different from how it was in the past eras. Similarly, the way the game is analyzed should also change and that is what data analyst Dan Weston is doing.

He does this for all countries where cricket is played, including India, where the IPL is currently being staged, a tournament where the Chennai Super Kings are favorites on the back of their supremacy in the league over the past decade and more.

Check out online bookmakers or try betting with Betway and you will see how highly rated the Super Kings are.

“Quite a few coaches are old school, so it’s difficult to get them to buy into what you’re offering,” says Weston. “There are just not enough fresh voices. Cricket is full of inane data like: ‘This is the slowest century by an English batsman on a Tuesday.’ It’s completely worthless.”

“If a bloke like myself can sit in an office and produce decent theories and data about T20 cricket, then I see no reason why a team with bigger resources can’t do the same,” he says.

This has resulted in Weston limiting his public data analysis.

“I wrote an analysis of 10 English players who would perform well in the subcontinent and the top five all got signed,” he says.
Weston analyzes cricketers across formats and across different playing conditions around the world. He uses his data and numbers collated through millions of ball by ball data to predict certain outcomes for players.

Weston became a cricket analyst after producing exhaustive data on tennis, which he utilized to bet on tennis matches. Once he realized that his tennis data and analysis could be transferred to cricket, he figures that he could make cricket analysis more suitable to today's times by applying his learning.

According to Weston, errors being made in the sport. He says “you name it, they’ll make that mistake, be it selection, recruitment, in-game tactics”. 

This led him to set up a data analytics business, which will support cricket teams, players, and agents by eliminating errors and providing more accurate and suitable data to make the decisions required to succeed.

Weston's model is complicated.

He analyzes each player individually by going through his recorded ball-by-ball data and makes adjustments to the players' average, strike rate, economy rate, etc. based on recency, opposition, and playing conditions. Based on this analysis, Weston determines the expected performance for each player for an upcoming tournament.

Basically, Weston produces a comprehensive assessment of how a player will perform in an upcoming competition, based on which he recommends players to teams around the world, including for the IPL, Big Bash, T20 Blast, and others.

“Cricket is a conditions-driven sport,” he says, “so a T20 Blast match at Canterbury will be a pace-orientated affair, whereas in Dhaka it’s going to be spinner-friendly and low-scoring. If a batsman performs well at Canterbury, does that really apply to a match in Dhaka? Probably not. There’s limited relevance. So I analyse how historically similar players have made the transition from one league to another. I might be asked to find a pace bowler for the T20 Blast, where an Australian will be quite highly-rated, as opposed to the IPL, where they haven’t thrived as much as their reputation would suggest because of the quality of the league.”

Weston says that what he does can easily be replicated by teams.

“Lots of high-profile players are signed based on reputation rather than current ability. Take Brendon McCullum: he’s got a poor record against spin bowling, he doesn’t keep wicket anymore, yet subcontinental teams are signing him as a marquee player. It makes no sense whatsoever."

“Then you see players signed based on reputation from another format."

“So Sam Curran played very well against India in Test matches last summer and has subsequently got a mega IPL deal despite the fact that his T20 data is not particularly impressive. I will continue to argue that he is an anti-moneyball signing.”

Weston believes that at times teams tend to cram a lot of versatile players into one team, which decreases the impact they can have on a game. Weston in fact has the data and numbers that prove the effectiveness of specialists in T20 cricket.

“You don’t want to stick an all-rounder at No. 9 because he’s just not going to bat,” he says. “The average No. 8 faces about seven balls per match, and the average No. 9 faces about four balls per match. If those guys are required to face more than the average, your top order batsmen haven’t done their job properly."

“For No. 9, 10 and 11 you just want an out-and-out specialist bowler who would perhaps then be capable of playing a five-ball cameo. If you pick too many all-rounders you end up compromising where they bowl, because often they turn out not to be very good death bowlers.”

It is quite strange that even with such brilliant insights, Weston is seeking out more work rather than turning it down. He says that he knows that teams from around the world were using his work without engaging him as a consultant.

“That includes guys like Wayne Madsen, who had never had an overseas contract before."

“A lot of the time people say they don’t have the financial capabilities to pay for my work, but I don’t buy into that theory at all. You can’t tell me that a cricket team has no financial wastage."

“If they were to use my data, they would be able to release a player and free up the money to pay for a consultant. It’s an indictment of the game at the moment.”

Weston believes that cricket coaching and analysis is starting to change. He believes that younger coaches will bring on more emphasis on data analysis, the kind that he produces.

“I think things will change in the next decade or so,” he says. “We’ll find that cricket will turn to much more of a baseball-orientated, stats-driven sport.”

When this does happen, it will lead everyone back to the efforts of one Dan Weston.

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