Here are my reasons why.
- New Zealand have always done well in ICC branded tournaments; World Cups especially. The semi finals are a given whenever the Kiwis start such a competition.
England on the other hand will make it an achievement if they get to the Super 8s. They haven't gone too far in any of the ICC tournaments since 1992.
- England are still learning the art of playing ODIs. It will take them some time to get their focus on an even more abridged version of the game.
For New Zealand though, it comes naturally - ODIs, T20s, piece of cake.
- In Ross Taylor, Jesse Ryder, Brendon McCullum, and Daniel Vettori, the Kiwis have 4 destructive players who on their day can single handedly win a 20-20 game.
Besides KP, England don't really have anyone who can do the same.
- While Andy Moles is talking about all the thought that has gone into New Zealand's preparations for the T20 world cup; Andy Flower is busy wondering why his team doesn't have a Flintoff, why he's working with a 3rd captain in 6 months, and why his team is so poor at T20.
- England first have to contend with Pakistan and the Netherlands; if they get past them, then they have the small task of getting past India, Australia, and South Africa if they want to get to the semis.
Yeah, doesn't look likely, does it?
For New Zealand however, it looks like a cakewalk with Scotland and South Africa first, and then Pakistan, West Indies / Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh / Ireland next.
As I said, piece of cake!
New Zealand will always be tough competition in a tournament like the 20-20 world cup, but they need something more than that to actually win the title. Maybe this is their time in favorable English conditions.
For England, even the favorable home conditions won't be of any help!