Who Will Pakistan Play in the Semi Finals?
After Pakistan's victory tonight, almost everyone who congratulated me via phone call, sms, facebook, email, etc also asked, "So how do we avoid South Africa in the semi finals?"
Majority of the Pakistan fans I know want to face the West Indies, for obvious reasons.
South Africa are too tough, they look like the strongest side in the World Twenty20, they haven't lost a match, and so on.
However, I think we are forgetting that South Africa are the eternal chokers.
The West Indies are riding a wave; they are on a roll, and hence could prove to be the more dangerous opponents in the semi finals.
I would rather see Pakistan play South Africa. Facing the West Indies may also put the Pakistan players at ease, which we don't want.
They need to be at their fiery best!
Anyhow, to answer the question, here are the scenarios:
Scenario 1: South Africa beats India, Sri Lanka beats New Zealand
This is straight forward as South Africa and Sri Lanka will top their respective Groups.
Semi Final 1: South Africa vs Pakistan
Semi Final 2: Sri Lanka vs West Indies
Scenario 2: South Africa beats India, New Zealand beats Sri Lanka
Here, South Africa tops Group E; who tops Group F will be determined by net run rate (NRR).
A) If New Zealand beat Sri Lanka by 34 runs or more, or chase their target in less than 16 overs, then their NRR will go above Pakistan's and they will finish top of their group.
In that case the semi final line up will be:
Semi Final 1: South Africa vs Pakistan
Semi Final 2: New Zealand vs West Indies
B) If New Zealand win by a lesser margin than stated above, then Pakistan tops Group F and the line up becomes:
Semi Final 1: South Africa vs New Zealand
Semi Final 2: Pakistan vs West Indies
Scenario 3: India beats South Africa, Sri Lanka beats New Zealand
Here Sri Lanka will top Group F, while India's margin of victory will determine who tops Group E.
A) If India beat South Africa by at least 32 runs, or chase their target in less than 16 overs, then West Indies will end up on top of Group E as South Africa's NRR will fall below theirs.
In this case the semi final line up will be:
Semi Final 1: West Indies vs Pakistan
Semi Final 2: Sri Lanka vs South Africa
B) A lesser margin of victory for India will see South Africa remaining on top of Group E, and the semi finals will be:
Semi Final 1: South Africa vs Pakistan
Semi Final 2: Sri Lanka vs West Indies
Scenario 4: India beats South Africa, New Zealand beats Sri Lanka
In this case all the Scenarios - 2A, 2B, 3A, 3B - are possible, hence all possible semi final combinations are possible.
Even yet, all scenarios, 1 through 4, are possible and Pakistan could be facing either South Africa or the West Indies in the World T20 semi finals.
Who would you rather see them play?
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