As the ICC World Cup 2019 enters the knock-out phase, there has been endless debate over whether the deserving four teams entered the semi finals or not.

Most of this debate focused on the fact that Pakistan had a far better league phase than New Zealand did, but the latter qualified for the semi finals on the basis of a superior net run rate, after both teams were tied on 11 points with 5 wins and a rained off game each.

There was also debate on whether Net Run Rate is the best metric to decide who qualifies, and whether Pakistan could have done any thing to improve its Net Run Rate.

WAS PAKISTAN THE BETTER TEAM?

It most definitely was!

Pakistan's 5 wins were against the number 1,4,5,7, and 10 ranked ODI teams. New Zealand's 5 wins were against the number 5,7,8,9, and 10 ranked ODI teams.

Pakistan beat 3 teams ranked above them! New Zealand beat none of the teams ranked above them.

Pakistan's rained off match was against the number 8 ranked ODI team. New Zealand's was against the number 2 ranked team.

Pakistan beat two of the eventual semi finalists. New Zealand did not beat either of the semifinalists.

Pakistan beat the favorites - a team that two of the semifinalists could not beat. New Zealand did not even come close!

But, New Zealand's net run rate was better so here we are.

IS NET RUN RATE THE BEST METRIC?

No it is not.

You can read some of the detailed pieces on NRR here and here.

Yes, net run rate is utter nonsense.

You can also see what the experts are saying.




COULD PAKISTAN HAVE IMPROVED ITS NET RUN RATE?

My stance on this is that it could not have unfortunately.

What Pakistan could have done (and should have) was try and avoid a big loss against the West Indies. Once their net run rate went to -5.8 or thereabouts, there was no coming back from that.

That was the match that destroyed Pakistan's NRR and no matter that they did in the following matches, it was next to impossible to improve that.

Let me explain further.

In hindsight, and considering Pakistan's 94 run win over Bangladesh, this is what Pakistan needed to do in its matches against South Africa, New Zealand, and Afghanistan to take its NRR over New Zealand's:

Beat South Africa by 100 runs (instead of 49 runs)
Chase target against New Zealand in 37 overs (instead of 49.1)
Chase target against Afghanistan in 30 overs (instead of 49.4)

Do you think that was possible?

Against South Africa, perhaps a 100 run win was possible had Pakistan not dropped those 6 catches.

Chasing 237 against New Zealand in 37 overs was unlikely. Pakistan could have tried maybe, but the wicket was turning square and Pakistan batsmen decided to see off Santner, which was smart as Pakistan did not lose any wickets to him. What if Pakistan had failed to chase the total in an attempt to chase it quickly? The two points were more important than NRR improvement.

Chasing 228 in 30 overs is not easy. Afghanistan possess the best spin bowling attack in the world so to get them away at over 7.5 an over is quite tough.

Had Pakistan tried, they might have been in the same position they actually were in, 156-6, and it would have still required a rearguard from Imad Wasim, resulting in a last over win.

So no, NRR improvement was not an option for Pakistan.

In the losses against Australia and India, Pakistan in fact improved its NRR so the argument that they didn't try in those games is also invalid.

Against Australia, Pakistan had fallen to 160-6 and then 200-7, in a chase of 307. So getting to 266 from 160-6 was in fact NRR improvement. A 100 run loss there would have made it worse!

Against India, Pakistan scored 46 runs off the final 5 overs, in a match that they had lost well before that stage. Those 46 runs at over 9 an over improved Pakistan's NRR.

So no, there was no way Pakistan could improve its NRR, to a level that would have gotten them ahead of New Zealand's, after that hammering from the West Indies.

Let us go back to 21st June 2019. On that day, Sri Lanka beat England and provided an opening to not only itself, but also to Pakistan and Bangladesh.

For Pakistan, it was straight forward - win its last 4 matches and then hope for either of the following:

1. Australia to lose to England, New Zealand, and South Africa.
2. England to lose to two of Australia, India, and New Zealand.
3. New Zealand to lose to West Indies, Pakistan, Australia, England.
4. New Zealand to lose to three of the above with Pakistan's NRR going above New Zealand's.

Pakistan's analysts would have done the calculations and the team would have ruled out scenario 4 right away given the unrealistic numbers. Winning each game by 120 odd runs or chasing totals in 30 odd overs was never going the happen.

Winning those 4 games and gaining 2 points from each game was more important than looking to improve NRR at the same time.

Pakistan's best bet was to win its 4 remaining matches and hope for either of scenario 1,2, or 3 to play out.

Pakistan won its last 4 matches. It did its bit. It pretty much thrashed everyone, except for Afghanistan.

Unfortunately, neither of scenario 1,2, or 3 played out.

WHERE NOW FOR PAKISTAN?

It was a sad end to an excellent World Cup campaign for the Greens.

Speak to any of the journalists or personnel that was around the team for the past month and they will tell you how hard the boys worked.

To pick themselves up after losses to Australia and India, and after they were ridiculed for eating burgers and pizzas and going out for sheesha, is no small task.

Only the Pakistanis can showcase such resilience, forgive disrespectful fans, and go on to thank them.

This World Cup campaign was arguably the best one Pakistan had this century. World Cups in 2003, 2007, and 2015 were disasters and Pakistan required rebuilding after each one following an exodus of under performing seniors.

World Cup 2011 was a good one and remains the only campaign where Pakistan reached the semifinals in the 21st century.

However, I rank Pakistan's performance in 2019 above that one in 2011 as Pakistan beat higher quality opposition in 2019 and was just unlucky not to qualify for the semifinals.

There is some thinking to be done, but at least there is no need to rebuild.

Pakistan's future is bright with a core of talented and young individuals who have provided the promise of turning into superstars for Pakistan in the years to come.

The Pakistanis are quite disappointed.

Considering the exciting cricket Pakistan played in this ICC World Cup 2019, and then seeing their chances fade away with New Zealand making the cut for the final four, disappointed is an understatement.

Unfortunately, it is the net run rate and not the level of excitement or entertainment a team brings that decides who goes through.

But even then, New Zealand!?

Really?!!!

They were trounced by Pakistan. Thumped by Australia. Destroyed by England. Didn't even play against India.

How can they be the fourth semi finalist?

Apparently that is what happens when you win two games comprehensively, and then ride your luck to win 3 games in the final over.

New Zealand has been a poor team all World Cup. They have played the tournament with 1 batsman and 2 bowlers and 8 passengers.

Yet, here they are, alongside Australia, India, and England, playing the semi finals of the World Cup.

Who knew cricket could be so cruel.


Various conspiracy theories are flying around. India refused to chase against England; England slowed down against New Zealand; New Zealand didn't even try against England; England and New Zealand ensured that the Kiwis' NRR stays in safe territory.

You know what, who cares.

Let us forget about what England, India, New Zealand did.

We have only ourselves to blame.

We should have beaten the West Indies. Or at the very least not lost so heavily. Our NRR never recovered after that defeat, and it is haunting us today.

From the position we were in against Australia, we should have won that game.

The only part where luck went against us was when the rains came down and made us share a point with Sri Lanka, and made New Zealand share a point with India.

That was just gross misfortune.

Pakistan could have beaten Sri Lanka. India would have definitely thrashed New Zealand. And the story would have been very different.

But I guess, it was not meant to be.

Where rain saved us in 1992, it screwed us in 2019.

That is where all the similarities with 1992 end I am afraid.

It was a lot of fun while it lasted though. Pakistan had quite a World Cup.

We beat two of the semifinalists.

We beat the favorites.

We beat South Africa quite easily, but then again, everyone did.

We also had a classic Pakistan-style comeback win against Afghanistan.

It was all quite entertaining, but being entertaining is not enough sadly.

Pakistan even remained in the race for the final four till the very end till England, India, and New Zealand combined to keep us out.

If you look back, it was Sri Lanka's win over England that opened up the World Cup. We would have had 20 odd dead rubbers had England won that day.

So we have Sri Lanka to thank for keeping the World Cup alive. And we have Pakistan to thank for remaining in the race against the Big 3 and their bridesmaid.

Or do we just keep it simple and thank the ICC?

It was fun Pakistan. It was a good fun ride. Very entertaining and exciting. Unfortunate that we are not there in the final four, but such is cricket. Such is life.

There will be more.

There will be another where we will not require favors from other teams.

There will be another where Pakistan will triumph.

There will be another where the only similarity with 1992 that we will talk about will be the eventual champions.

Till then, well played Pakistan!

The ICC World Cup 2019 gets underway in a week from now when hosts England square off against South Africa. The previous two World Cups were won by the host nations - India in 2011 and Australia in 2015 - and this time, it is also the host nation that goes into the 6-week tournament as firm favorites to lift the trophy for the very first time.

England have played 3 ICC World Cup finals, finishing runners up every single time. This cup is there for the taking for the world's number one ODI team.

But will they be able to?

They were firm favorites to win the ICC Champions Trophy too in 2017, but stumbled against a rampaging Pakistan in the semifinal.

The bookies have England as the favorites, followed by India and Australia.

Looking at the teams' form since the previous World Cup in 2015, it is apparent why England are favorites.


England and India are in a different league altogether. The best ODI sides around currently and I feel there will be nothing stopping them from making the semifinals of World Cup 2019.

While Australia is a third favorite of the bookies, their overall performance since 2015 has left a lot to be desired. But they have recently picked up their performances after the team settled down following the 12 month absence of Steve Smith and David Warner.

With both Smith and Warner back in the fold, Australia will be a strong contender.

South Africa and New Zealand are quite consistent as well and New Zealand had their best run ever in the previous World Cup. The black caps can never be ruled out in a tournament.

South Africa somehow win a lot of bilateral ODIs but when it comes to World Cups, they are the eternal chokers.

Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and the West Indies are not to be ignored but it does not seem like either team has it in them to win 6-7 matches consistently to vie for a semi final spot.

This leaves us with the perennial unpredictables - Pakistan.

Barring the Champions Trophy win in 2017, Pakistan have been quite atrocious in ODIs since World Cup 2015. They have not won much and more than 90% of their ODI wins over the past 4 years have come against low ranked teams like Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe. When you look at ODIs against the top 5-6 sides, Pakistan have won just a handful of games.

But then, one can never rule out Pakistan in a tournament like this.

I feel England and India will go into the semifinals with a lot of one-sided victories and it will be left to the middle tablers - Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and Pakistan - to fight it out for the other two semifinal spots.

And then when in the final four, it is anyone's game really.

I am backing Australia and Pakistan to join England and India in the final four of the ICC World Cup 2019.

Pakistan will likely qualify as the 4th team and play their semifinal against host England, leaving India and Australia fighting it out in the other semifinal.

That will surely make for great viewing.

As everyone keeps saying, after the semifinals it is anyone's game, but I feel it very strongly that it will be Pakistan.

Not because Pakistan won the 1992 World Cup after Australia and India won the previous two in 1987 and 1983 respectively.

Not because Pakistan won the World T20 in England and the Champions Trophy in England so its time to win the World Cup in England.

Not because the 9th year of every decade sees a Pakistan team in the final - 1999, 2009, ...

I feel it will be Pakistan because I feel Pakistan's bowling will be tough to crack. With the pitches conducive to 300+ scores, as the English summer moves forward the pitches will wear out and spin will play a big role.

Pakistan have the services of Shadab Khan, Imad Wasim, and Mohammad Hafeez who can be very tough to get away.

With all teams finding it easy to score heavily, the team with good bowling will come out on top more often than not.

We all saw Pakistani bowlers get plastered by England in the recent ODI series but Mohammad Aamir and Shadab Khan were missing from that series. These two, along with Hafeez, are among the most economical bowler in ODIs.

Pakistan's batting seems to have come to terms with the requirements of modern day ODI cricket, but with their bowling in full form, the boys in green will be a force to reckon with in World Cup 2019!