As the ICC World Cup 2019 enters the knock-out phase, there has been endless debate over whether the deserving four teams entered the semi finals or not.

Most of this debate focused on the fact that Pakistan had a far better league phase than New Zealand did, but the latter qualified for the semi finals on the basis of a superior net run rate, after both teams were tied on 11 points with 5 wins and a rained off game each.

There was also debate on whether Net Run Rate is the best metric to decide who qualifies, and whether Pakistan could have done any thing to improve its Net Run Rate.

WAS PAKISTAN THE BETTER TEAM?

It most definitely was!

Pakistan's 5 wins were against the number 1,4,5,7, and 10 ranked ODI teams. New Zealand's 5 wins were against the number 5,7,8,9, and 10 ranked ODI teams.

Pakistan beat 3 teams ranked above them! New Zealand beat none of the teams ranked above them.

Pakistan's rained off match was against the number 8 ranked ODI team. New Zealand's was against the number 2 ranked team.

Pakistan beat two of the eventual semi finalists. New Zealand did not beat either of the semifinalists.

Pakistan beat the favorites - a team that two of the semifinalists could not beat. New Zealand did not even come close!

But, New Zealand's net run rate was better so here we are.

IS NET RUN RATE THE BEST METRIC?

No it is not.

You can read some of the detailed pieces on NRR here and here.

Yes, net run rate is utter nonsense.

You can also see what the experts are saying.




COULD PAKISTAN HAVE IMPROVED ITS NET RUN RATE?

My stance on this is that it could not have unfortunately.

What Pakistan could have done (and should have) was try and avoid a big loss against the West Indies. Once their net run rate went to -5.8 or thereabouts, there was no coming back from that.

That was the match that destroyed Pakistan's NRR and no matter that they did in the following matches, it was next to impossible to improve that.

Let me explain further.

In hindsight, and considering Pakistan's 94 run win over Bangladesh, this is what Pakistan needed to do in its matches against South Africa, New Zealand, and Afghanistan to take its NRR over New Zealand's:

Beat South Africa by 100 runs (instead of 49 runs)
Chase target against New Zealand in 37 overs (instead of 49.1)
Chase target against Afghanistan in 30 overs (instead of 49.4)

Do you think that was possible?

Against South Africa, perhaps a 100 run win was possible had Pakistan not dropped those 6 catches.

Chasing 237 against New Zealand in 37 overs was unlikely. Pakistan could have tried maybe, but the wicket was turning square and Pakistan batsmen decided to see off Santner, which was smart as Pakistan did not lose any wickets to him. What if Pakistan had failed to chase the total in an attempt to chase it quickly? The two points were more important than NRR improvement.

Chasing 228 in 30 overs is not easy. Afghanistan possess the best spin bowling attack in the world so to get them away at over 7.5 an over is quite tough.

Had Pakistan tried, they might have been in the same position they actually were in, 156-6, and it would have still required a rearguard from Imad Wasim, resulting in a last over win.

So no, NRR improvement was not an option for Pakistan.

In the losses against Australia and India, Pakistan in fact improved its NRR so the argument that they didn't try in those games is also invalid.

Against Australia, Pakistan had fallen to 160-6 and then 200-7, in a chase of 307. So getting to 266 from 160-6 was in fact NRR improvement. A 100 run loss there would have made it worse!

Against India, Pakistan scored 46 runs off the final 5 overs, in a match that they had lost well before that stage. Those 46 runs at over 9 an over improved Pakistan's NRR.

So no, there was no way Pakistan could improve its NRR, to a level that would have gotten them ahead of New Zealand's, after that hammering from the West Indies.

Let us go back to 21st June 2019. On that day, Sri Lanka beat England and provided an opening to not only itself, but also to Pakistan and Bangladesh.

For Pakistan, it was straight forward - win its last 4 matches and then hope for either of the following:

1. Australia to lose to England, New Zealand, and South Africa.
2. England to lose to two of Australia, India, and New Zealand.
3. New Zealand to lose to West Indies, Pakistan, Australia, England.
4. New Zealand to lose to three of the above with Pakistan's NRR going above New Zealand's.

Pakistan's analysts would have done the calculations and the team would have ruled out scenario 4 right away given the unrealistic numbers. Winning each game by 120 odd runs or chasing totals in 30 odd overs was never going the happen.

Winning those 4 games and gaining 2 points from each game was more important than looking to improve NRR at the same time.

Pakistan's best bet was to win its 4 remaining matches and hope for either of scenario 1,2, or 3 to play out.

Pakistan won its last 4 matches. It did its bit. It pretty much thrashed everyone, except for Afghanistan.

Unfortunately, neither of scenario 1,2, or 3 played out.

WHERE NOW FOR PAKISTAN?

It was a sad end to an excellent World Cup campaign for the Greens.

Speak to any of the journalists or personnel that was around the team for the past month and they will tell you how hard the boys worked.

To pick themselves up after losses to Australia and India, and after they were ridiculed for eating burgers and pizzas and going out for sheesha, is no small task.

Only the Pakistanis can showcase such resilience, forgive disrespectful fans, and go on to thank them.

This World Cup campaign was arguably the best one Pakistan had this century. World Cups in 2003, 2007, and 2015 were disasters and Pakistan required rebuilding after each one following an exodus of under performing seniors.

World Cup 2011 was a good one and remains the only campaign where Pakistan reached the semifinals in the 21st century.

However, I rank Pakistan's performance in 2019 above that one in 2011 as Pakistan beat higher quality opposition in 2019 and was just unlucky not to qualify for the semifinals.

There is some thinking to be done, but at least there is no need to rebuild.

Pakistan's future is bright with a core of talented and young individuals who have provided the promise of turning into superstars for Pakistan in the years to come.

Pakistan's win over New Zealand in Birmingham was set up by Mohammad Aamir and finished by Babar Azam. Pakistan's premier fast bowler and Pakistan's best batsman rising to the occasion when needed the most - What better way could there be to lift an entire nation than this!

Birmingham was absolutely electric!

Twenty five thousand Pakistanis at the ground made it feel like we all were in Pakistan itself. A sea of green, thousands of flags, and Dil Dil Pakistan echoing around Edgbaston turned Birmingham into Lahore for the day.

It all started with Aamir's first ball of the match. Chants of "Aamir Aamir Aamir" as he ran up to bowl made magic happen as Aamir broke through the defenses of Martin Guptill, shattered his stumps, and set up the entire day for Pakistani fans.

The euphoria that resulted from this did not die down for even a second for the next 8 hours!

Even though New Zealand fought back from 80 odd for 5, the final target was not a daunting one and we expected Pakistan to chase it down.

But as Pakistan fans, we all know better. Pakistan and chasing don't seem to go together.

Babar Azam and Haris Sohail, however, made sure that these ghosts of past chases stayed away from Birmingham.

Pakistan's victory was a shut up message to a number of Pakistan critics.

Critics who did not believe that Pakistan could chase.

Critics who did not believe that Pakistan could compete against the bigger teams.

Critics who laughed every time a reference to 1992 was made.

Critics who mocked the believers of Pakistan cricket miracles after the losses to Australia and India.

Critics who harshly criticize Babar Azam for not finishing games.

I say harsh because Babar is merely 68 ODI innings old. How can one expect someone with that little experience to be a world beater? How can one expect someone who has not even played 100 ODIs to be a Kohli or a Joe Root?

Babar is immensely talented no doubt. He is the best batsman in Pakistan currently, and the best batsman to come out of Pakistan since Inzamam, Yousuf, and Younis.

However, expectations of him need to be real and not unfair as they have been.

The Kohlis, Roots, Smiths, and Williamsons of the world did not become who they are after 60 odd ODIs. Babar's international career is only 3-4 years old and no batsman ever became a great inside their first 3-4 years.

Look at how the rest of the current 'greats' and past 'modern greats' fared in their first 68 ODI innings.


Barring Hashim Amla, Babar is well ahead of the rest of the pack after 68 ODI innings. In terms of runs, in terms of average, in terms of strike rate, and in terms of ODI centuries.

Give him time, and he will convert more 50s into 100s and win more matches for Pakistan. He has got a long road ahead of him and a lot of time too.

In Birmingham, Babar brought up his 10th ODI century and it was definitely his best ODI century till date. He walked in to bat in the 4th over and stayed there till the last. He dominated the bowling and he finished the game off for Pakistan.

Under pressure, chasing a target, Babar showed the world his best.

It was a treat to watch this knock from the stands.

Babar's celebration when he got to the hundred showed what it meant to him. And the crowd's reaction showed what it meant to them.



The Birmingham experience was one of the best in ground experiences I have had watching cricket. It was by far the best Pakistani crowd I have ever seen. It was better than Lord's, better than Old Trafford, better than Sharjah and Dubai, better than Gaddafi Stadium.

The atmosphere was just awesome.

Surely Pakistan dominating the game made it all the more exciting for Pakistan fans, but I could feel the belief and excitement among everyone on the train from London and on the walk to Edgbaston from the Birmingham train station.

It was a magnificent day out and I was totally blown away by Babar Azam and the Birmingham crowd!

Shaheen Shah Afridi ended the ODI series against New Zealand with 9 wickets, behind only Lockie Ferguson's 11 wickets, but at a better average and strike rate.

Shaheen's 9 wickets consisted of two 4-wicket hauls in each of the first two ODIs and before rain spoiled the match last night, he had already got rid of Colin Munro. Who knows how many more he would have got had the match been completed.

Deservedly so, the 18 year old left arm pacer was adjudged Man of the Series.


Shaheen has been a great find for Pakistan.

Only 6 ODIs old, his bowling stats are astonishing, more so because he has played all his ODIs in the UAE, where pitches favor either the batsmen or the spinners.

Shaheen's 13 ODI wickets in 6 games have come at an average of 17.61, an economy rate of 4.88, and a strike rate of 21.6 - that is a wicket every 4th over he bowls in ODIs!

Even in T20Is, Shaheen has been quite effective picking up 11 wickets in 7 games at an average of 18.45.

I really want to say "ek Afridi gaya, ek aur aa gaya" but this is more about the pace talent that Pakistan keeps on churning out.

Just when Pakistan is feeling that they may have lost their star left armer Mohammad Aamir, they have found Shaheen Afridi who seems to improve with every match he plays.

He has just made it to Pakistan's test squad for the series against New Zealand and the prospect of seeing him bowl with the red cherry is even more exciting.

Another exciting left armer with a bright future for Pakistan is Usman Khan Shinwari.

Why he did not play a single ODI against New Zealand is beyond me. Especially at a time when Hasan Ali was struggling for form.

Usman's ODI record is even better than Shaheen's!


In 9 ODIs, Usman has picked up 18 wickets at an average of 15.27, economy rate of 4.66, and strike rate of 19.6 - better than Shaheen in all three areas.

Which makes it really strange that he was on the bench against New Zealand.

Among all pacers that have taken at least 10 wickets in ODIs in 2018, Usman and Shaheen are right up there in terms of their averages.


Both of them are among the only 5 pacers in the world with an average under 20 this year.

Plus, Shaheen's strike rate is among the absolute best, right up there with Dale Steyn's.

Together, Usman and Shaheen can form a potent new ball attack, which can be extremely dangerous in South Africa early next year and then in England during the World Cup.

Both of them have tremendous potential and have made it much easier for Pakistan to not miss a struggling Mohammad Aamer.

So after a 9-match ODI winning streak, Pakistan have now lost the first two ODIs in New Zealand and all has broken lose.

All of a sudden, the batting looks shaky, the captain looks concerned, and the bowling isn't good enough to contain the Kiwis.

So what has gone wrong?

Before that, lets first focus on what is right with this ODI team.

For starters, they have a world class modern day opener and one-down batsman in Fakhar Zaman and Babar Azam.

The bowling is top quality, at least on paper. Aamer, Hasan, Rumman, Faheem, and Shadab provide for great variety and potency.

In Shadab, Faheem, and Hasan, Pakistan also has depth in its batting, which will come to use if only the top order can fire.

Now then, what is going wrong?

The bowling leaked 315 runs in the first ODI and could not defend 150 in 25 overs in the second. That is definitely not top quality. Maybe the bowlers have not been able to find their feet yet in NZ conditions. Maybe Guptill and Monroe are too good for them. Could be a number of reasons.

But then, you can't afford to drop players like Kane Williamson, because they will take full advantage of the chances given to them and go on to score a century.

Pakistan also refuses to learn from its mistakes.

Azhar Ali has gotten out in exactly the same manner in both ODIs. His dismissal in the second ODI was so identical that one could be forgiven to mistake it for a replay of the first ODI.

Shoaib Malik continues to edge it behind the wicket whenever he bats outside Asia.

With Hafeez not bowling any more, Pakistan's ODI side may not be big enough for both him and Malik. Especially with the likes of Haris Sohail sitting on the sidelines.

Another issue that needs to be sorted is the captain's batting number. Six is not the right number for him and too low for a batsman of his ability.

He needs to bat in the top 4.

In 13 innings at number 6 in ODIs, he has scored 268 runs at an average of 26.8 with 1 half century.

In 9 innings at number 5, he has scored 421 runs at an average of 60.1 with 1 century and 3 half centuries.

In 7 innings at number 4, he has scored 197 runs at an average of 39.4 with 1 half century.

In 9 innings as an opener, he has scored 344 runs at an average of 43.0 with 1 century and 1 half century.

It is evident that Sarfraz is better at all other positions, besides number 6. He is best at number 5, which is where he batted when Azhar Ali captained the ODI team.

The reason he is lingering down at 6 is because of the presence of Hafeez and Shoaib Malik in the team.

I believe the batting order requires a reshuffle.

Sarfraz needs to be pushed up. Haris Sohail needs to be brought in. One of Hafeez or Malik needs to be dropped.

Or if one wants both Hafeez and Malik in the side, then drop Azhar and make Hafeez open.

This may somewhat improve Pakistan's batting performance and changes need to be made soon as we are only 18 months away from the World Cup in 2019.